AGP Executive Report

US Sanctions Push: The U.S. Senate passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 in an 86-11 vote, sending it to the House. The bill would let President Trump impose up to 100% tariffs on goods from the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas (currently China, India, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Slovakia) and also targets Russia’s leadership, banks, oligarchs and the “shadow fleet,” while extending Iran sanctions to 2031. Market & FX Watch: Russia’s Central Bank set the official euro rate at 94.8366 rubles for Aug. 8. Energy & War Spillover: Ukraine struck a Wildberries warehouse in Ekaterinburg with drones, more than 2,000 km from the border, as Moscow promised more infrastructure protection. Finance & Capital Markets: MTS Bank helped organize MegaFon’s new 23bn ruble exchange-traded bond issue. Tech & Industry: Russia’s plan to quadruple Angara rocket output relies heavily on Chinese machine tools. Crypto Crackdown: Russia’s FSB shut down nine unregistered crypto exchanges in Moscow City, detaining 20+ staff tied to laundering from Ukraine-linked phone scams. Diplomacy: Zelensky visited Serbia for talks with Vučić, underscoring Belgrade’s balancing act with Russia and the EU.

EU Sanctions: The EU approved fresh sanctions on five Russians tied to the military-industrial complex, freezing assets and banning EU access after intensified strikes on Ukraine. War Economy & Energy: Russia’s attacks are hitting Ukraine’s energy chain hard: Naftogaz says 287 strikes on its facilities since early 2026 are forcing more financial support, while a major blow to Ukrnafta shut down multiple oil-and-gas assets. E-commerce Under Fire: Satellite imagery shows Ukrainian drone damage to Wildberries warehouses across Russia, underscoring how logistics and civilian commerce are becoming war targets. Intra-EAEU Trade: In a business bright spot, EAEU mutual trade rose 8% in Jan–May 2026 to over $39bn, with new deals on e-commerce and broker access signed in Kyrgyzstan. Armenia Pivot Tensions: Armenia’s trade is shifting toward the EU (EU share up, EAEU down), while Russia’s deputy PM warns Russia-Armenia trade has plunged by about two-thirds amid EAEU-related frictions. Crypto Crackdown: Russia shut nine unregistered crypto exchanges in Moscow City as FSB raids targeted alleged laundering linked to fraud proceeds. Defense Industry Pressure: UK also rolled out a new sanctions package hitting Russian banks, shadow-fleet shipping assets, and rare-metals importers tied to defense supply chains. Tech & Cyber: US and allies warned of a Russian hacking campaign that can steal email credentials just by opening a malicious message.

Sanctions & Shipping: The UK rolled out its first Russian sanctions package under new leadership, targeting 19 listings including six banks, six “shadow fleet” tankers and a named India-based ship manager tied to LNG shipments; Korea is now asking for an LNG exemption to protect energy security. Central Banking & FX: Russia’s Central Bank set the official euro rate at 94.0585 rubles for Aug. 7 (up from 93.1901 on Aug. 6). Banking Stress: Reports say Sber and other state lenders are seeing worsening loan quality, with more restructuring and rising non-performing loans. Crypto Regulation: Russia moved to legalize regulated crypto trading while Sber plans crypto trading infrastructure, signaling a push to build alternatives to the global banking system. Trade & Regional Deals: At the Kyrgyz-Russian Economic Forum, agreements worth $545.1m were signed, including major energy projects; Kyrgyz exports to Russia reportedly rose sharply in early 2026. Georgia Tourism Dispute: Georgia launched a sabotage probe into alleged fake claims about mistreatment of Russian tourists, escalating a politically charged information fight. War’s Business Impact: UN chief condemned intensified Russia-Ukraine strikes as civilian infrastructure takes hits, while Ukraine said it will support farmers affected by attacks on ports and the Black Sea corridor.

UK Sanctions Push: The UK rolled out fresh sanctions on 19 Russia-linked targets, hitting six banks, six newly acquired “shadow fleet” tankers, and four firms importing rare metals tantalum and niobium used in hypersonic and weapons supply chains. Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Economics: Ukraine struck two major Russian refineries—Bashneft-Novoil in Bashkortostan and Slavneft-YANOS in Yaroslavl—aiming to cut oil revenues that fund the war, while Russia intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Black Sea Shipping Costs: Freight rates on Black Sea routes reportedly jumped up to fourfold as war-risk surcharges and drone threats disrupted cargo flows to Russia’s Novorossiysk hub. Russia’s External Buffers: Russia’s international reserves fell $11.8bn to $720.3bn in a week, mainly from revaluation. Armenia Trade Strains: Armenia-Russia trade dropped 20.9% in Jan–Jun 2026, with Russia’s share in Armenia’s trade falling to 27.5%. Migration Pressure: Russia tightened work-entry rules; entries from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan fell 15% in H1 2026 amid stricter schooling requirements for migrants’ children.

Crypto Regulation: Putin signed a law setting rules for Russia’s crypto exchanges and digital depositories, with the Bank of Russia as the main regulator and a continued ban on using crypto for domestic payments. Defense & Drones: Putin appointed Denis Lyamin to lead Russia’s new Unmanned Systems Forces, underscoring how drones now drive strikes on energy, sea targets and logistics. Ukraine Air-Defense Pressure: Kyiv said Russian missiles and drones killed 17 and wounded 44 overnight, blaming depleted Patriot interceptor supplies. EU Sanctions Spillover: The European Commission said it will channel €1.4bn from interest on frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Markets & FX: Russia’s finance ministry plans August budget-rule purchases of foreign currency and gold worth 136.17bn rubles, while the Moscow Exchange index is being watched around key levels. India-Russia Trade: India’s ambassador said both sides aim for $100bn bilateral trade by 2030 and will mark 80 years of diplomatic ties in 2027 with events across sectors. Cybersecurity: Microsoft warned of Russian-linked hackers using hotel Wi‑Fi “captive” portals to steal traveler credentials. Black Sea Disruption: Attacks on ports and export terminals are disrupting grain and oil flows, adding pressure to global commodity markets.

EU Sanctions & Ukraine Funding: The European Commission says it will transfer another €1.4bn in windfall profits from frozen Russian central bank assets to Ukraine, with 95% routed via the Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism and 5% through the European Peace Facility. Cyber & Security: Microsoft warns of Russian state-linked hackers using “CaptiveCrunch” to compromise hotel Wi‑Fi and steal corporate credentials. Ukraine Air War: Russia’s overnight barrage on Kyiv killed 17 and injured 44, with Zelenskyy blaming a Patriot interceptor shortage after none of the ballistic missiles were stopped. Retail Under Fire: Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s e-commerce giant Wildberries are reported to have caused about ₽100bn ($1.2bn) in damages, threatening cash flow and vendor stability. Energy & Trade Politics: Armenia’s minister says Iranian gas isn’t a substitute for Russian gas, pointing to capacity upgrades and a gas-for-electricity swap. Regional Trade: Indonesia heads to a BRICS trade meeting pushing market access and services cooperation. Mobile Internet Controls: Russia’s “whitelist” mobile internet mode is reported to have become permanent in central regions, tightening access during security concerns.

Crypto Regulation: Putin signed Russia’s first comprehensive crypto law, treating digital assets as property and putting the Bank of Russia in charge of exchanges, custody and investor rules (payments still banned, with limits for non-accredited buyers). Digital Security: Microsoft warned that Russian-linked hackers have been targeting hotel Wi‑Fi routers to redirect guests to fake login/update pages and steal credentials. War & Civilian Impact: Russia launched a major overnight missile-and-drone attack on Kyiv, hitting residential buildings and triggering fires and an ammonia leak; separate reports also describe deadly strikes around Ukraine’s border city of Sumy. Black Sea Shipping Risk: Turkey urged Russia and Ukraine to improve Black Sea navigation safety after a drone hit a Turkish-owned cargo vessel near Novorossiysk, injuring crew. Energy/Trade Pressure: Ukraine says Russian port attacks could cut its agricultural export capacity, costing $1.5B–$3B. Policy & Markets: RBI is expected to hold rates steady, with inflation in its target band and focus shifting to growth.

Food-Price Oversight: Putin signed a law expanding state access to detailed financial data to track price moves on staple foods and curb excessive markups from Jan. 1, 2027. Crypto Rules: The Kremlin also legalized cryptocurrency circulation, defining digital currency as property and empowering the Bank of Russia to regulate licensed platforms. Fuel Crunch Management: Gazprom Neft lifted fuel-purchase limits in 13 regions, easing summer shortages as prices stay elevated; Mongolia meanwhile imposed odd-even plate limits on fuel sales until Aug. 15. Banking Pressure: Russia’s banks blocked 1.9 trillion rubles in attempted fraud in Q2, while Sovcombank launched a “Successful Success” promotion for business accounts. Market Mood: Moscow Exchange shares edged up, with analysts watching the index hold above 2,250 points amid oil-price drag and ruble moves. Regional Trade Shock: Armenia’s Central Bank warned that reduced exports to Russia could hit 1.5–2% of GDP. Sanctions Push: Latvia approved a “national position” to step up sanctions and weaken Russia’s war economy. War’s Business Fallout: Ukrainian strikes continue to disrupt logistics and energy, while Russia’s job cuts spread as firms trim labor costs to survive.

AML Crackdown: FinCEN hit UBS Financial Services with a record $125M civil penalty over repeat anti-money-laundering monitoring failures, including tens of thousands of unmonitored foreign wires, after the bank had promised fixes following an earlier 2018 action. Ukraine–Russia Business Shock: Ukrainian drones reportedly struck Wildberries logistics sites near Moscow and St. Petersburg, adding to disruption risk for Russia’s e-commerce supply chain and logistics costs. VAT Rules Tighten: Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry proposes cutting the list of imported technological equipment exempt from VAT, signaling higher import costs for some industrial inputs. Healthcare Financing: Bank DOM.RF started a first tranche of over 180M rubles to help build a Perm oncological center, with the project slated to open in 2027 and backed by infrastructure bonds plus bank lending. FX Watch: Russia’s central bank set the euro at 91.9589 rubles and the yuan at 11.8342 rubles for Aug. 4. Manufacturing Pulse: Russia’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in July, the highest since Jan 2025, as domestic demand held up despite weaker exports and fuel/transport strains.

Arctic Oil Logistics: Russia is building an unusually large tanker fleet for near-record crude shipments via the Northern Sea Route, with about 8 million barrels lined up—around 60% of last year’s Arctic deliveries to Asia—while drone and shadow-fleet pressure keeps the route strategically vital. Sanctions Pressure on Missile Makers: Zelensky says many of Russia’s ballistic-missile producers can still dodge strict global sanctions through offshore and partner-country loopholes, urging tighter coordination and secondary sanctions on banks and transit channels. Russia’s Civilian Economy Under Strain: Sberbank research flags a worsening “demographic crisis” in business: closures tied to real decisions are rising fast while new company registrations fall, hitting retail, construction and manufacturing. Corporate Mobilization Compliance: Russian firms are issuing new internal guides to prepare HR and managers for mobilization checks, as job listings for mobilization specialists surge. Aviation & Industry: Russia’s import-substituted MC-21-310 production model completed its maiden flight, with deliveries planned after certification. Markets & Commodities: Gold cooled after early gains as central-bank buying slowed to the weakest first-half pace since 2022, while oil slid on hopes for Middle East de-escalation and OPEC+ output increases. Energy Security Abroad: Malaysia reiterated any crude imports—including from Russia—must follow commercial and legal channels as it seeks to diversify gas supply options.

Ukraine-Russia War & Energy Logistics: Kyiv’s deep drone strikes hit Russia’s Saratov oil refinery and Engels airbase, while Russia says it shot down 635 drones; the attacks also targeted Wildberries warehouses far from the front, underscoring how civilian logistics are being pulled into the war economy. Retail & Consumer Impact: Wildberries—often dubbed Russia’s “Amazon”—keeps getting hit, with officials reporting fires and casualties in multiple regions, raising pressure on e-commerce supply chains and prices. Moscow Security Shock: A bomb attack outside a Moscow Italian restaurant killed at least three and injured dozens; Russian officials call it terrorism and blame Ukraine. Markets & Costs: Brent slipped below $82 a barrel, but fuel-price pressure may persist as refining capacity stays tight after war-related disruptions. Payments & Sanctions Workarounds (Mongolia): Golomt Bank says 96% of yuan transactions in Mongolia now use China’s CIPS, speeding settlement and reducing reliance on traditional rails amid sanctions concerns. US Policy: A Russia sanctions bill faces Senate friction over proposed 100% tariff authority tied to Russian oil and gas buyers, threatening support for Ukraine-focused measures. Tech/Defense: Russia unveiled Volna Kupol Garant, aimed at disrupting Starlink by overloading satellite receiving antennas.

Wildberries Under Fire: Ukrainian drones struck another Wildberries logistics warehouse in Russia’s Samara region, about 800 km from the front, sparking a fire with no reported casualties, as Kyiv’s campaign targets the e-commerce giant’s depots and Russia’s broader economic capacity. Deep-Strike Pressure on Energy: Zelenskyy says long-range strikes hit Russia’s Saratov oil refinery and the Engels airbase, plus a Kaluga oil depot and a drone launch site in Bryansk, while Russia reports large drone interceptions. Moscow Bombing: A homemade explosive device detonated at a private event at a Moscow restaurant, killing three and injuring 21, with authorities calling it a terrorist attack. Diplomacy Push: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Washington will seek to restart Russia-Ukraine talks in coming weeks, aiming to narrow “red lines.” Energy Markets Watch: OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 188,000 bpd in September, while OPEC’s monitoring committee warned that attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes are driving volatility. Armenia-Russia Rail Tension: Armenia and Russia signal a dispute over the Russian-operated railway concession, with Yerevan warning it could move to arbitration if talks fail. Defense Industry Stress Test: Rostec reported 2025 net profit down 42%, citing limited internal funds for new investment projects despite higher revenue from defense orders.

Moscow Security: A homemade bomb exploded outside Balzi Rossi during a private event in central Moscow, killing three (including the suspected bomber) and injuring 21, with authorities saying the device was carried by a woman and detonated remotely. War Economy & Shipping: Russia says it hit more than 80 vessels tied to supplying Ukraine in July, underscoring how the Black Sea and adjacent sea lanes are becoming a direct business risk for logistics and energy flows. Crypto Policy: Russia expanded its crypto mining ban across Moscow and parts of Kursk until 2032, aiming to protect electricity networks and closing off mining-pool routes. Sanctions & Trade: The US is pushing to revive Russia-Ukraine peace talks while also advancing a sanctions bill with potential 100% tariff powers targeting major Russian oil and gas importers, raising uncertainty for India, China and parts of Europe. Finance & Rates: Russia-linked market pressure also shows up globally as Japan’s rising bond yields strain its debt strategy, with spillovers to currency and investor risk appetite. Regional Business: Leningrad region is seeking deeper supply-chain cooperation with China, including expanded Baltic shipping and Arctic route trials.

Ukraine War Economy Under Pressure: Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign is shifting from military targets to commercial ports, grain terminals and oil export facilities, while Russia counters by hitting Ukraine’s six commercial ports, threatening Black Sea trade and raising costs for exporters. Kyiv Missile Toll & Air-Defence Strain: Russia launched 35 missiles and 185 drones at Kyiv; at least 9 died and dozens were hurt, with Zelensky warning Ukraine intercepted only one ballistic missile because Patriot interceptors are running out. Oil Refining Hits in Russia: SBU drones struck three Bashneft refineries in Bashkortostan (Ufa), targeting a refining hub with 23mn tonnes capacity, as analysts warn the campaign is turning oil into Russia’s weaker economic link. Black Sea Shipping Disruption: Ukraine sank the Russian-flagged container ship Yanina, and Russia’s grain lobby warns port and ship attacks could soon block export corridors, risking major global food-supply shocks. Wildberries Fallout: Ukrainian strikes on Wildberries logistics have triggered billions in losses claims across multiple countries; the company says seller compensation is not legally required, while it offers goodwill payments. Central Bank FX Update: Russia’s central bank adjusted official FX rates against the ruble, including higher dollar, euro and yuan rates. Elite & Wealth Signals: The combined wealth of Russia’s richest businessmen fell by $5bn since early 2026, even as some fortunes rose, highlighting uneven economic stress. Sanctions & Tariff Risk: A US Senate push for Russia sanctions bill would add tariffs on top buyers of Russian oil and gas, putting pressure on India and other partners. Business-Adjacent Security: A Russian drone strike killed a Rozetka warehouse worker and injured seven, underscoring how e-commerce logistics are becoming war targets.

Ukraine Strikes & Civilian Toll: Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv killed at least four and wounded more than a dozen, as officials warned residents to stay in shelters. Fuel Crisis & Energy Security: Ukraine’s drone campaign is reported to have disabled over 30% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, with repairs dragging on and worsening a major fuel crunch. Banking & Rates: The maximum interest rate on ruble deposits at Russia’s biggest banks rose to 12.85% per year, while the euro was set at 91.1925 rubles for Aug. 1. Crypto Crackdown: Russia expanded a ban on cryptocurrency mining in Moscow and parts of Kursk until 2032, citing energy capacity concerns. Retail Under Fire: Wildberries said its warehouses are under “terrorist attack” after repeated Ukrainian strikes, while it pushed back on compensation expectations. Sanctions & Trade Pressure: India says it is closely monitoring a US bill that could impose up to 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and gas. Regional Business Moves: NPF Socium rebranded as NPF Ingosstrakh, positioning itself as an integrated pension solutions platform.

Wildberries vs. Ukraine strikes: Ukraine hit Russia’s Wildberries logistics network again, with smoke and fires at depots in Tatarstan and beyond, as Kyiv targets the e-commerce supply chain tied to the war effort. Crypto regulation: Russia released draft rules for Bitcoin margin trading, including collateral and short-selling conditions, aiming to bring crypto brokers into risk-calculation frameworks and potentially reshaping global market expectations. Black Sea food security: Russia’s grain lobby warned that Ukrainian attacks on ports and ships could soon block Black Sea export corridors, tightening wheat supplies and raising prices for Africa and the Middle East. Armenia-EAEU rail and trade tensions: Armenia’s economy minister said Yerevan wants the Eurasian Economic Union to continue, while Russia’s economic development chief argued Armenia can be substituted in Russian markets and rejected claims for extra payments tied to the South Caucasus Railway concession. Telegram crackdown: Russia escalated pressure on Telegram by listing Pavel Durov as a terrorist/extremist, adding legal and financial risks for the platform. Ukraine-Russia battlefield: Overnight strikes killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine and wounded dozens, while NATO said a Russian missile incident involving Poland is under investigation.