AGP Executive Report

Oil and Gas: Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues are forecast to rise 10% year on year to about 1 trillion rubles ($12 billion) in October, boosted by excess-profit tax payments. But January–October proceeds are still expected to fall 14% from last year, with oil production down 5% in the third quarter. Fuel Trade: Russian diesel exports have resumed after a deal with Washington, with a shipment from Primorsk heading to Morocco. Moscow says exports could reach 3.5 million tonnes by year-end, though limited refinery capacity may constrain supplies. Crypto Rules: From July 2027, Russians will have to trade cryptocurrency through licensed intermediaries; direct person-to-person deals will no longer be permitted. India Ties: Bilateral trade with India reached $38 billion in the first half of 2026, keeping the countries on course for their $100 billion target by 2030. Business Climate: Russian business investment stalled in the third quarter as profits fell and uncertainty persisted.

US-Russia Business: President Donald Trump is reportedly open to broader economic cooperation with Moscow if peace is reached in Ukraine. Russia says its first diesel contracts with the US could be signed soon, while Washington is also weighing a proposal to move some frozen Russian assets into a US-supervised fund—a plan European delegates rejected. India Trade: Tatarstan’s trade with India exceeded $1 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $300 million in all of last year, according to a regional official promoting closer business ties. Digital Economy: Drone strikes on Russian data centers have disrupted cloud services, online banking, payments and delivery apps, exposing how vulnerable the country’s digital businesses are to attacks on critical infrastructure. Regional Cooperation: Slovakia plans to revive its joint economic commission with Russia on Nov. 25, its first meeting since 2021, while also scheduling economic and reconstruction talks with Ukraine.

Moscow Economy: The city forecasts gross regional product growth of 1.5–2.5% in 2027–29, with manufacturing output projected to rise 6–7.5% annually. Investment growth is expected to pick up after a modest 0.5% in 2027. Currency and Markets: The Central Bank set the euro at 93.9229 rubles for October 15, up from 93.7723 a day earlier. The Moscow Exchange index hovered above 2,426 points as traders bet on improved US-Russia ties, with 2,500 seen as within reach. Diesel Deal: Washington’s temporary easing of sanctions to allow Russian diesel exports could open the door to wider economic cooperation, Moscow says. But US lawmakers are urging Trump to reverse course, while analysts doubt the shipments will meaningfully lower fuel prices. Asian Trade Links: Russia and ASEAN are discussing customs cooperation and maritime security, alongside other areas for practical partnership.

Energy Trade: A temporary US waiver clears the way for Russian diesel exports, starting with 300,000 tonnes and followed by larger shipments. The move has drawn bipartisan opposition in Washington, while analysts say the added supply may do little to lower prices. Sanctions: The EU has approved its largest expansion of Russia-related listings, targeting nearly 1,600 people and entities linked to missile, drone and other military supply chains, increasing compliance risks for businesses. Transport: Kazakhstan and Russia are reviving the Irtysh freight route, which could carry Chinese cargo through Kazakhstan to Omsk and into Siberia’s transport network. Public Finances: Russia expects extra non-oil-and-gas budget revenues to reach 1 trillion rubles in 2026, even as the central bank signals slower economic growth.

Diesel Deal: Washington’s temporary sanctions relief for Russian diesel has triggered bipartisan calls to reverse course, with senators questioning its legality and analysts doubting it will meaningfully lower fuel prices. The deal could bring Moscow revenue, while the White House presents it as leverage for peace talks. Sanctions and Oil Trade: France intercepted an EU-sanctioned tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet as Europe steps up enforcement. The EU has also imposed its largest sanctions package yet on Russia’s military industry, listing nearly 1,600 people and entities. Banking and Crypto: Russia’s central bank approved Sberbank to offer crypto exchange services, with customer trading planned for December 1. Economic Outlook: A Bank of Russia deputy chief expects GDP growth to slow slightly from last year; the federal budget deficit reached 2.2% of GDP in the first nine months. Business Disruption: Ukrainian strikes on Yandex data centers disrupted services including taxis, payments and retail platforms, prompting the Kremlin to say the government is discussing the fallout.

Fuel and Markets: Russia’s planned diesel shipments to the US and global markets, enabled by a temporary easing of US restrictions, helped push oil prices down to about $105 a barrel. Analysts expect only modest fuel-price relief, while refinery outages may limit Russia’s ability to boost exports. Public Finances: Russia’s budget deficit reached 5.19 trillion rubles, or 2.2% of GDP, in the first nine months of 2026, according to preliminary figures. Investment: VTB will lend 1.89 billion rubles to finance a 14,000-square-metre industrial park in eastern Moscow, aimed at expanding premises for small and midsize businesses. Trade and Labour: Vladimir Putin ratified a Russia-India agreement enabling temporary employment in each country, formalising a framework relevant to the roughly 70,000 Indians already working in Russia. Sanctions: The EU added nearly 1,600 Russian people and companies to its lists, targeting firms and executives linked to military production.

Diesel Deal: Washington’s plan to allow Russian diesel imports has triggered bipartisan US protests over legality and fears it could weaken sanctions and fund Moscow’s war effort. The promised supply may do little to ease fuel prices, which remain volatile amid doubts over a Russia-Ukraine energy truce. Sanctions: The EU adopted its largest-ever round of Russia listings, targeting 1,569 people and companies tied to the military-industrial complex, plus 77 people involved in elections in occupied Ukrainian territories. Germany rejected easing pressure on Moscow. Trade & Payments: Russia’s foreign trade surplus rose 16.4% in January-August, reaching $11.7 billion in August. Payments firm A7 is due to unveil a service letting customers settle foreign invoices in USDT, with funds delivered by standard bank transfer. Finance: Moscow Exchange plans to open regulated Bitcoin spot trading to retail investors on December 1.

Diesel Deal: Washington’s temporary sanctions waiver for Russian diesel drew bipartisan US criticism over its legality, while the EU warned the sales could fund Moscow’s war effort. Oil prices fell about $1.50 a barrel on expectations of extra supply, though analysts doubt the shipments will significantly ease fuel costs. Markets: The Moscow Exchange plans to launch regulated crypto trading on December 1, expanding Russia’s formal digital-asset market. Trade: Russia-China trade is forecast to hit a record $270–275 billion this year, underscoring the growing importance of the bilateral economic relationship.

Energy Trade: Washington has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian diesel imports through April 2027, with President Donald Trump touting shipments to the US and global markets. Six senators want the move reversed, a Republican says it may be illegal, and analysts doubt the fuel will arrive in time to make a lasting difference to prices. Energy Truce: Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacks on energy infrastructure, but Kyiv says it was not consulted and wants details; Moscow has not confirmed the deal. Technology: Ukrainian drone strikes have hit three Yandex data centres in four days, halting operations at a facility in the Vladimir region and disrupting services, including parts of Russia’s cloud and AI infrastructure. Russia’s Budget: Moscow plans to cut spending in real terms while increasing defence outlays, adding pressure to public finances as war costs mount. Arctic Trade: India is working with Russia on an ice-class shipbuilding capability to support Northern Sea Route and Chennai–Vladivostok trade.

Energy Trade: The US has temporarily authorized Russian diesel transactions, including imports, through April 7, 2027, after Donald Trump announced a supply deal with Vladimir Putin. Russia says shipments will begin with more than 300,000 tonnes, but analysts doubt the added supply will significantly lower fuel prices. Export Revenues: Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell 17.2% in the first nine months of 2026, underscoring pressure on state income even as Moscow seeks new buyers. Financial Regulation: The Bank of Russia approved the country’s first crypto exchanges and custodians under new rules; Sberbank has been cleared to custody Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT. Global Outlook: IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok will focus on energy-driven inflation, higher borrowing costs and mounting public debt.

Diesel Trade: President Donald Trump says Russia will supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, with further shipments planned, after Washington temporarily authorized Russian fuel imports through April 2027. A tanker carrying an estimated 280,000 barrels may be the first shipment bound for the US, but analysts say limited supplies are unlikely to significantly lower fuel prices. The EU, meanwhile, plans new sanctions targeting about 1,600 Russian military-industrial entities. Public Finances: Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell 17.2% in January–September, while the federal budget deficit reached $61.1 billion. Moscow also plans to cut transfers to Belarus by nearly 1.4 billion rubles next year, mainly reflecting changes in oil taxation. Business Risks: Sberbank has warned that overdue corporate loans are rising as Russian companies face mounting strain.

Energy Trade: Washington has authorised Russian-origin diesel imports through April 7, 2027, after President Donald Trump agreed with Vladimir Putin on supplies of hundreds of thousands of tonnes, with more shipments planned. Putin says the trade will benefit the global economy, but analysts doubt the initial volumes will significantly lower fuel prices. Russia’s Finances: Oil and gas revenues fell 17.2% in January–September, while the budget deficit reached $61.1 billion. Defence spending is on track for a record near $200 billion this year, adding pressure to public finances. Regional Commerce: Putin says Russia-CIS trade exceeded $110 billion in 2025, as Moscow calls for fewer trade barriers and deeper economic cooperation.

Energy Deals: US and Russian officials reportedly discussed bringing an American investor into the Nord Stream pipelines, potentially paving the way for Russian gas sales to Europe after the war. The White House said there had been no recent talks, and officials cited major obstacles. Digital Infrastructure: Drone strikes damaged Yandex data centers in Ryazan and Kaluga, disabling modules and disrupting some services. Business Pressures: Sberbank says overdue corporate loans are rising as high interest rates and slow growth strain borrowers, including property developers and retailers. Annual inflation reached 7.17%. Trade and Markets: Russia-China trade is forecast to hit a record $270–275 billion this year. The Moscow Exchange plans to launch regulated crypto trading on December 1, while Britain announced new sanctions targeting Russian oil companies, tankers and military suppliers.

Trade: Russia-China turnover is forecast to hit a record $270–275 billion in 2026, with officials targeting $300 billion by 2030. Prices and Credit: Annual inflation reached 7.17%, while consumer prices jumped 0.96% in one week. Sberbank issued 445.5 billion rubles in mortgages in September, up 62.2% year on year. Energy: US and Russian officials are discussing potential American investment in Nord Stream, but sanctions and German opposition make a deal difficult. Digital Finance: The Moscow Exchange plans to offer crypto trading from December, as the Central Bank begins registering crypto exchanges and custodians. Sanctions: Britain added 38 Russian oil, shipping, military and financial targets, including crypto platforms accused of helping evade restrictions.

Digital Infrastructure: A Ukrainian drone strike set fire to Yandex’s Sasovo data center, disrupting Russian banking, retail, rail-ticketing and media services. Yandex says it is still assessing whether equipment can be restored. Energy: Ukraine confirmed a strike on Omsk, Russia’s largest refinery, which can process about 440,000 barrels a day; the extent of damage is unclear. Sanctions: Britain added 38 Russia-linked targets, including oil firms, 12 tankers and crypto and defense suppliers, saying its sanctions now cover more than 90% of Russian oil production capacity. EU ambassadors also backed 1,646 new listings, largely tied to Russia’s defense industry, pending formal approval. Gas Trade: US and Russian officials reportedly discussed American investment in Nord Stream, but no restart deal is confirmed and EU restrictions remain a major obstacle. Fuel Flows: South Korea rejected claims that its fuel shipments helped ease Russia’s supply crunch, while saying it is checking reports of tanker deliveries.

Energy: US and Russian officials have discussed bringing an American investor into the Nord Stream pipelines, Reuters reports, potentially positioning US firms to profit from renewed gas flows to Europe if the war ends. A White House official said there had been no recent pipeline discussions. Finance: The Bank of Russia has registered the country’s first crypto exchanges and digital-asset custodians, including Sberbank and VTB, opening a regulated channel for crypto services. The official euro rate rose to 96.33 rubles for October 8. Investment: VTB joined a state-backed robotics loan program offering rates as low as 5%, and signed tourism project financing deals worth 32.2 billion rubles. VEB.RF and Alfa-Bank also agreed on a 70-billion-ruble, 13-year financing transaction to free up capital for major projects. Trade and sanctions: Russian gold shipments to Hong Kong reportedly surged nearly 300% to $19.75 billion, while the EU approved a new sanctions package targeting more than 1,600 people and organizations.