AGP Executive Report

Black Sea Grain Shock: Drone strikes have nearly shut down Russia’s main grain export corridor, with all three Novorossiysk terminals halted and Azov Sea navigation suspended—leaving only Tuapse still operating and threatening about $15bn a year in foreign-currency revenue. Sanctions Escalation: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says the bloc will expand Russia sanctions in autumn, potentially boosting the number of sanctioned entities by a third. War Economy Pressure: Reuters reports VEB.RF fired chief economist Andrei Klepach after his warning that Russia can’t win a “war of attrition,” adding to signs of mounting economic strain. Crypto Crackdown: Binance shared personal data and transaction records of an IT specialist accused of financing terrorism via crypto donations tied to Ukraine. Banking Footprint Shrinks: Russia’s banks shut a record number of branches since 2017, accelerating closures even as mobile outages make remote banking harder. EU-Russia Tensions: Russia threatened Britain over UK-made drones reportedly used for strikes inside Russia. Wildberries Under Fire: Ukraine’s deep strikes hit Wildberries logistics hubs again, forcing reroutes and underscoring how the war is reaching Russia’s consumer supply chain.

Wildberries Under Fire: Ukraine’s drone campaign hit Russia’s “Amazon” again, with strikes on about 20 Wildberries warehouses since mid-July, now knocking out operations at seven of the retailer’s 10 biggest logistics centers—raising fresh pressure on VTB-linked financing and the wider financial system. Ukraine-Russia Escalation: Russia reported intercepting 822 drones overnight while Kyiv hit Moscow region targets, killing at least six in Russia and injuring others in multiple regions. Industrial Fallout: A Russian strike damaged ArcelorMittal’s Kryvyi Rih steel plant, partially halting production; both sides also struck grain and other commercial infrastructure, including ports. EU Sanctions Push: EU foreign chief Kaja Kallas said a major autumn sanctions expansion is coming, potentially boosting the number of sanctioned Russian entities by a third. NATO Airspace Tensions: Romania said a Spanish F-18 shot down a drone that entered NATO airspace, with debris reported in the Black Sea. Geopolitics Beyond Europe: Myanmar’s civilian president Min Aung Hlaing is heading to Moscow for talks with Putin, aiming to deepen security and economic cooperation.

Ukraine–Russia Drone War Hits Moscow Region: Ukraine launched one of its biggest drone assaults, with Russia saying it intercepted 822 drones overnight; at least six people were killed, and a major Wildberries logistics warehouse near Moscow burned after the strike. E-commerce Under Fire: Wildberries says multiple hubs have been hit in recent weeks, with losses estimated in the hundreds of billions of rubles, adding pressure to Russia’s war-linked supply chains. Black Sea Shipping Security: Ukraine’s acting foreign minister discussed Black Sea security with Greece, warning Russia’s port and vessel strikes threaten freedom of navigation and global food trade. Arctic Trade Route Expands: A Chinese container ship began Europe-bound service via Russia’s Northern Sea Route, cutting transit times and bypassing the Red Sea—while environmental groups warn faster traffic could worsen Arctic ice loss. BRICS Finance Push: Iran’s central bank chief says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, alongside talks on linking payment systems to speed cross-border transactions. Russia’s Labor Controls: Russia plans to tighten foreign-worker recruitment from 2027 by tying migrants to specific employers, jobs and regions, raising concerns about informal work and ongoing labor shortages.

Arctic Trade & Shipping: A Chinese carrier, Sea Legend, starts the first regular container service on Russia’s Northern Sea Route, aiming to cut China-Europe transit time and boost Moscow’s Arctic logistics push. Ukraine-Russia Trade Disruption: Ukraine’s drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar coast knocked out grain terminals and disrupted exports, while Russia reported intercepting hundreds of drones. Defense & Industrial Targets: Ukraine struck Russia’s Progress Rocket and Space Centre in Samara, plus an air base and an oil facility near Ust-Luga, as both sides trade long-range blows. Data & Surveillance: Russia plans to expand passenger tracking using travel and payment-related data across transport modes, tightening centralized control. Crypto & Sanctions: Binance ended transactions with 16 crypto platforms, warning users about wallet reviews and possible restrictions amid US/EU sanctions pressure. Energy Economics: An analyst warns India’s oil bill could rise $5–10bn if Russian crude purchases fall 50%, with knock-on inflation and rupee/current-account risks. Finance & Trade Links: Iran’s central bank chief says Iran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, as BRICS officials discuss payment-system and digital-currency links. North Korea-Russia Ties: Kim Jong Un told Putin he’s “proud” of the relationship, underscoring deepening military and economic cooperation.

BRICS Finance: Iran’s central bank chief says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, with BRICS officials also discussing payment-system links and digital-currency use to speed cross-border transfers. Ukraine War Economy: Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on Russia’s Krasnodar region reportedly hit Black Sea grain terminals, disrupting exports and lifting wheat prices, while also killing an eight-year-old and injuring dozens. Sanctions & Weapons: Russia warns it will suffer “serious damage” to ties with the US and Turkey over reports that Turkey plans to re-export US-made ATACMS and other arms to Kyiv. Cyber & E-commerce: Ukraine’s HUR says it hacked Wildberries’ systems in an Aug. 10–11 operation, disrupting customer service and partially destabilizing payments—on top of earlier strikes on its logistics. Banking Watch: Sberbank posts record 1H26 profit, but reporting highlights growing bad-debt risk and mounting stress across Russia’s banking sector. Aviation Industry: Russia’s industry ministry claims it produces all aircraft components domestically, underscoring the push for supply-chain independence. Energy Trade: Russia’s oil grip on India hits a record share in July, as refiners buy more Russian crude amid global supply shifts. Crypto Rules: Russia moves to restrict retail crypto trading to bitcoin, ether and USDT, while also expanding regulated exchange trading options.

Black Sea Energy & Food Shock: Ukraine’s overnight drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar Region hit Black Sea cities and knocked out two major grain terminals, halting exports and pushing wheat prices higher, while also damaging infrastructure around Novorossiysk. Port Disruption: Russia suspended crude exports from the Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk after the Aug. 12 strike, with tanks at capacity and loading stopped—another blow to maritime trade. Deep Strike Escalation: Ukraine reportedly hit the Savasleyka military airbase in Nizhny Novgorod, tied to MiG-31s used for Kinzhal launches, as explosions were also reported in Samara. Sanctions & War Finance: Zelenskyy announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s defense industry, financial networks and intermediaries, and separately imposed penalties over stolen grain exports from occupied areas. Russia–Armenia Trade: Armenian and Russian officials agreed to intensify food-safety cooperation and address restrictions affecting Armenian exports and transit through Russia. India–Russia Energy Trade: India reiterated its Indus Waters stance while Reuters reported Russian crude taking a record share of India’s imports in July, underscoring how energy flows keep shifting despite sanctions. EU Energy Diplomacy: A Russian envoy said the EU is prioritizing renewed dialogue with Moscow as gas reserves dwindle ahead of winter. Markets: Russia’s stock market slid sharply on Aug. 14 amid rising geopolitical tension and renewed warnings from Lavrov.

Black Sea Energy & Food Shock: Ukraine’s drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar coast hit Novorossiysk grain terminals and infrastructure, halting exports and pushing wheat prices higher. Oil Supply Rewiring: Turkey bought no Russian Urals crude in August after Novorossiysk disruptions, turning to Brazil and Guyana. E-Commerce Damage Claims: Russia’s Wildberries and other platforms asked the government for non-refundable aid after drone strikes destroyed warehouses, with losses potentially near 1 trillion rubles. Crypto Sanctions Pressure: Binance stopped processing transactions with 14 Russia-linked crypto platforms in the EU’s latest sanctions package. BRICS Finance Move: Iran’s central bank chief says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank as BRICS discusses payment-system links and digital-currency rails. Industrial Pulse: Russia’s engineering output rose for the seventh month in a row, and a new printed-circuit-board plant is starting in Vologda. Politics & Elections: Yabloko appealed Russia’s Supreme Court ruling barring it from State Duma elections.

BRICS Finance Push: Iran’s central bank governor says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, as BRICS finance chiefs discuss payment links and digital-currency options to speed cross-border trade and cut reliance on the dollar. Black Sea Grain Shock: Ukraine sent a Black Sea truce proposal to Russia to stop attacks on civilian targets, but Russia says it hasn’t received a formal offer; meanwhile drone strikes and port disruptions are already slashing grain flows and raising food-price risks. Arctic Shipping Bet: Putin highlighted growing India interest in the Northern Sea Route as Russia seeks more Arctic trade partners amid sanctions. Russia Economy: Rosstat-linked data shows GDP up 1.3% year-on-year in Q2, driven by domestic demand, trade and manufacturing, even as budget strains deepen. Moscow Procurement Reform: Russia’s Moscow region raised the SME procurement price cap to ₽30 million from Oct. 1, aiming to let small firms win bigger government contracts. VTB Housing Finance: VTB opened a 7.6bn ruble credit line for a business-class residential complex in Kazan, with commissioning planned for Q1 2029. Currency Watch: The Central Bank set the euro at 96.7538 rubles for Aug. 14.

Oil & Food Security: Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Novorossiysk area again, damaging major grain terminals and a refinery deep inside Russia, raising fears of supply disruptions and pushing up wheat prices. Energy Costs & Logistics: The refinery damage is feeding a fuel crunch in Russia, lifting freight tariffs and straining road transport and gas-station supply. Sanctions & Payments: Armenia’s central bank rules force local banks to screen and block transactions tied to sanctions-evasion, tightening payment routes linked to Russia. Armenia–Russia Trade: Armenia’s economy and agriculture ministers met to discuss conditions for resuming Armenian product supplies to Russia under EAEU safety and traceability requirements. Shadow Fleet Escalation: Britain defended its seizure of a Russian “shadow fleet” tanker after Putin warned of retaliation “in kind,” keeping the sanctions-by-sea standoff in focus. BRICS Finance: Iran’s central bank chief says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, alongside talks on payment links and digital currencies. Russia–Malaysia Ties: Russia and Malaysia advanced plans for direct flights and deeper cooperation in space, energy (LNG/LPG), and education. Geopolitics: Putin’s Kuril Islands visit drew Tokyo’s ire, underlining how territorial disputes keep economic rapprochement hard.

Black Sea Shock to Trade: Ukraine’s overnight strike on Russia’s Novorossiysk hit four warships and disrupted major grain terminals, killing civilians including a child and raising wheat-price jitters. Shadow Fleet Escalation: Putin warned Europe may face retaliatory seizures of commercial vessels as the EU steps up inspections tied to Russia’s sanctions-evasion shipping network. Fuel Crunch Meets Geopolitics: Ukraine reportedly paused some tanker attacks after a U.S. request tied to protecting global oil flows, as Russia leans on imports and refinery pressure deepens. Arctic Shipping Push: Putin said India and other partners are increasingly interested in the Northern Sea Route, while a Chinese shipper prepares a weekly Arctic container service and South Korea tests the corridor. BRICS Finance & Infrastructure: India’s Nirmala Sitharaman urged multilateral banks to help mobilize private capital for BRICS infrastructure, spotlighting the New Development Bank’s role. Iran Joins BRICS NDB: Iran’s central bank chief said Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, aiming to expand dollar-avoiding finance. Cyber Risk to Business: NSA and partners warned that compromised routers and weak network settings keep exposing enterprises and homes to Russian-linked intrusions. Gold Breakout: Gold surged past a six-month resistance level as China bought more bullion and gold-ETF inflows returned.

Maritime Retaliation: Putin warned Europe it will face “reciprocal measures” if it seizes Russian “shadow fleet” vessels, calling the practice piracy and threatening action beyond the detention waters. Crypto Rules: Russia’s central bank moved to allow retail trading only in bitcoin, ether and USDT on regulated exchanges, with a 300,000-ruble annual purchase cap per intermediary and a ban on crypto payments. Innovation Slide: Russia’s share of global invention patent filings fell below 0.8% (Oct. 2025), with domestic filings also hitting a historic low. Cyber & Web Disruption: Ukraine’s intelligence says mass revocations of international security certificates are forcing Russian state and corporate sites to rebuild web infrastructure, while a separate report flags hundreds of malicious VPN/proxy Chrome extensions targeting Russian users. Business & Finance: VTB launched a developer service to help large firms configure treasury and accounting integrations; meanwhile a Moscow court jailed a microchip importer CEO in a $1.8m tax-evasion case. War’s Economic Hit: Ukraine’s drone campaign against Wildberries logistics is driving ad spending cuts and sales drops, while drone strikes also disrupted two Novorossiysk grain terminals.

US-India-Russia Oil Tariff Clash: White House trade adviser Peter Navarro says Trump and Modi will “work out” the 100% tariff threat tied to India’s Russian crude purchases, after the US Senate passed the sanctions bill. Crypto & Payments Push: Russia’s central bank cleared Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether for regulated exchange trading, while BRICS leaders discuss linking fast payment systems and CBDCs. Markets & Energy: Oil prices edged up on Middle East supply worries as Hormuz talks remain uncertain; wheat stays pressured by weaker demand and Black Sea risks. Ukraine War Spillover: Russia’s missile-and-drone barrage killed at least 12 in Ukraine, with Zelenskyy citing North Korean weapons; Ukraine also hit Russian logistics, including Wildberries warehouses. EU Sanctions Enforcement: Austria uncovered a sanctions-evasion scheme supplying machine tools for Russian missile and fighter-jet production. Black Sea Security: Romania destroyed two Gerbera-type drones drifting near the Neptun Deep gas project after Ukraine denied ownership. Business Climate in Russia: Reports say Putin is preparing a fall mobilization after rigged Duma elections, while Russia’s budget gap deepens despite oil windfalls.

Ukraine Air-Defense Strain: Ukraine says it can’t intercept Russia’s ballistic missiles and is even scaling back missile reporting as interceptor shortages bite, while strikes hit civilian infrastructure including Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv. Long-Range Drone War: Ukrainian drones extend deep into Russia, with attacks on oil and industrial sites like Nizhnekamsk and Orsknefteorgsintez reported as fires and casualties mount. Budget Pressure: Russia’s federal budget posted a July deficit of 724bn rubles, lifting the first-seven-month gap to 6.5tn rubles. FEZ Expansion: The government extended the free economic zone regime across all of Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk to attract manufacturing and agriculture investors with tax and fee breaks. Armenia/EAEU vs EU: Russia’s deputy FM says Armenia must decide by December on a referendum choosing EU or staying in the EAEU, with EAEU/CSTO implications looming. Crypto Regulation: Russia’s central bank proposes allowing retail trading in Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT on regulated exchanges from Sept. 1, with limits and mandatory risk testing. Food & Markets: Wheat futures swing as Black Sea and Hormuz risks threaten export flows, while Russia’s grain exports are reported rising to 54m tons. Retail Shock: Ukrainian strikes have disrupted Russian supermarket supply chains, with warehouse damage contributing to temporary shelf shortages.

US-Russia Sanctions Push: The US House moved to advance a sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions package after the Senate passed it 86–11, targeting Russian oil and gas revenues, banks, oligarchs and the “shadow fleet,” with tariff provisions now a key fight. EAEU Marketplace Compliance: Rosaccreditation says a new document-verification service will help EAEU sellers meet Russian marketplace conformity rules as the platform-economy law takes effect. Retail Supply-Chain Scrutiny: Rosselkhoznadzor flagged veterinary-law violations in Kostroma-region retail chains, citing cancelled traceability documents tied to dairy and pet feed. SME Finance: SME Bank completed an 8th securitization deal placing 4bn rubles in SME-loan-backed bonds. Russia-India Logistics: Russia floated a direct rail corridor to India via Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan to reduce maritime risks around Bosphorus and Hormuz. FX Watch: Russia set the yuan official rate at 12.2546 rubles for Aug. 11. Politics at Home: Russia’s Supreme Court barred the anti-war Yabloko party from September parliamentary elections, narrowing legal opposition. War’s Consumer Hit: Ukraine-linked strikes again targeted Wildberries logistics, underscoring how the conflict is reaching Russia’s retail economy.

Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Energy Core: Kyiv’s long-range drones hit the Taneko oil refinery in Tatarstan (Nizhnekamsk), killing at least 13 and injuring dozens, with prosecutors opening a “terrorism” case as “long-range sanctions” target Moscow’s war-fuel revenues. Trade & Macroeconomy: Russia’s foreign trade surplus rose about 14% y/y to $73.4bn in H1 2026, with mineral exports leading and machinery dominating imports. Retail Under Fire: Ukraine’s attacks on Wildberries logistics are now spilling into finance; the Russian Central Bank urges lenders to restructure loans for small and medium businesses hit by the warehouse strikes, with Sberbank and VTB already taking applications. Oil Shipping Workarounds: G7-linked tankers lifted 36.2% of Russia’s crude exports in July, the highest in a year, as Greek operators expand liftings despite sanctions. Agriculture Cooperation: Pakistan and Russia discussed expanding agricultural ties—farm machinery, fertilizers, pesticides and livestock health—aiming to boost food security. Markets Watch: Russian equities are consolidating below key resistance near 2,300 points as investors await fresh geopolitics and macro signals.

Ukraine-Russia Air War: Ukraine says it can’t intercept Russia’s ballistic missiles reliably anymore, with a major barrage killing at least 21 and wounding dozens as interceptor shortages bite. Defense & Industry: Russia is also experimenting with tank active protection systems to blunt drone attacks, underscoring how fast the battlefield tech race is moving. Energy & Trade Routes: Russia’s deputy PM floated a rail link to the Indian Ocean via Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan to reduce reliance on chokepoints like Hormuz and Bosphorus—while US sanctions on Russian oil raise new risks for India. Sanctions & Finance: A US Senate-backed Russia sanctions bill could enable up to 100% tariffs on major buyers, with analysts warning of potential crude supply disruption even if near-term flows may hold. Diplomacy & Europe: Russia accused Germany of seeking a scapegoat over the Nord Stream blasts and warned any response may stay “formal.” Regional Business Links: India’s UPI operator plans to use the overseas diaspora to expand cross-border payments, aiming to link UPI with foreign payment systems. Middle East Bases: Syria and Russia moved to reorganize Russian Mediterranean bases into joint training centers, with civilian control shifting to Damascus.