AGP Executive Report

Kyiv Infrastructure Under Fire: Russia hit Kyiv’s Northern Bridge over the Dnipro, damaging the road surface and trolleybus overhead cables and suspending traffic; it follows repeated strikes on the Southern Bridge that have already gridlocked the capital and forced commuters onto foot and detours. Defense Budget Pressure: Russia’s draft 2027 budget would lift defense spending to 17.1 trillion rubles (~$203bn), about 27% higher than planned, while cutting healthcare, education and social programs—signaling war costs crowding out domestic priorities. Retail Banking Moves: Novikom says its retail business is adapting to changing customer demand, with loan and deposit portfolios up sharply in 2025-2026, while MTS Bank reports Russians are cutting alcohol and tobacco purchases. Rail and Consumer Costs: Russian Railways will introduce a new progressive refund fee scale from Dec. 1 (max 10% of ticket price), and new car sales in Russia rose 5.3% in 9 months. FX Watch: The Central Bank set the euro at 94.3201 rubles for Oct. 3. EAEU Integration: EAEU prime ministers met in Minsk to review trade, customs, transport corridors and electronic document systems, including updates to rail priorities.

Russian Debt & Rates: Russia’s Finance Ministry plans to expand borrowing in 2026-27, pushing long-term fixed-coupon federal loan yields toward 16.8%—investors worry about a near-doubling of placements. Banking & FX: The Bank of Russia set the dollar at 83.48 rubles for Oct 3-5, with the euro and yuan adjusted too. Sanctions & Shadow Fleet: Japan rolled out new sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” freezing assets of 33 firms and nine people and requiring authorization for services and financial transactions tied to 35 vessels. US Targets A7: Washington froze A7 assets and banned transfers, calling the network a transnational criminal organization used to evade sanctions. Energy Market Pressure: G7 leaders said they’ll keep sanctions on Russia despite fuel-price volatility, while coordinating IEA releases to cushion diesel and other commodities. Ukraine War’s Business Hit: A survey says 87% of Ukrainian firms feel logistics attacks via higher costs and disrupted deliveries. Kyiv Infrastructure Strain: Russian strikes are disrupting bridge traffic and worsening winter fears as drone attacks target power and critical infrastructure. Public Health Shock: A fatal plague case was reported in Russia’s Buryatia-linked region, triggering hospital quarantine and monitoring of nearly 200 contacts.

Russia-India Trade & Corridors: Putin said Russia has “very big potential” for economic cooperation with India beyond logistics, backing joint use of maritime and land routes and urging Iran to complete work on the North-South corridor. Ukraine War Hits Infrastructure: Russian drones struck Kyiv’s Southern Bridge again, disrupting metro and road traffic, while a separate overnight strike damaged a 25-story residential building in Darnytskyi district, killing one and injuring two. Diplomacy & Sanctions: Putin praised Modi’s “good ideas” for ending the Ukraine war through dialogue; meanwhile Zelensky told EU ambassadors Ukraine needs more air defense and funding and pushed for tougher sanctions on Russia. Western Business Risk: Putin said seized Western assets in Russia could be returned “under a favourable scenario,” as Moscow continues external administration of firms. Financial Pressure: The US Treasury targeted Russia-linked A7 as a shadow banking network tied to Iran sanctions evasion. Consumer Market Signal: Samsung slipped to fourth in Russia’s loved-brands ranking as retail players gained preference.

Ukraine Compensation Plan: Ukraine says frozen Russian state assets won’t cover full ECHR compensation and urges a Council of Europe-backed mechanism plus partner funding and clear rules for distributing money. Energy War & Markets: Russia’s winter push hit Ukraine’s power system again, with Kyiv and multiple regions facing emergency cuts after a massive drone-and-missile barrage; separately, Russia extended its diesel export ban and fuel-producer curbs, tightening supply and adding pressure to global prices. Sanctions & Shadow Fleet: The UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” LNG tankers and war-related networks, while Estonia moved to ban Russian and Belarusian grain transit through Baltic ports. Finance & Business Signals: Russia’s economy shows mixed strain—GDP growth is cited, but business sentiment is downgrading amid strikes—while Bank of Russia moves include digital ruble access for MTS Bank and tighter rules for MFIs. Diplomacy & Trade: Russia used G20 talks to criticize US-led trade fragmentation; the Kremlin also said it could pursue US-Russia projects without waiting for Ukraine settlement. Security & Tech: Ukraine urged US sanctions on firms tied to Russia’s “Rassvet” satellite network; Latvia approved tighter limits on Russian-language content in public media. Russia-Ukraine Escalation: Putin reiterated “all weapons at disposal” if Russia is attacked, as Kyiv reported drone strikes near key bridges and a hit on a nuclear research institute.

Ukraine War & Energy Risk: Russia hit Odesa’s business center and, in a wider barrage, killed seven in Ukraine while targeting the power grid as winter pressure mounts. Sanctions & Tech: Ukraine urged US sanctions on firms supplying components for Russia’s Rassvet satellite network, while the new Lindsey O. Graham sanctions law is reshaping trade talks with major oil buyers. G20 Trade Talks: US pushed G20 ministers on MFN and steel overcapacity in Milwaukee, with India’s Piyush Goyal leading; Brazil is seeking full tariff cuts with the US. Russia–EU Business Mood: Russia’s EU trade mission says European firms are still interested in resuming ties despite sanctions, citing sharp trade declines. Russia Policy & Finance: Russia tightened cash export rules and microfinance lending limits; the Central Bank set the euro at 94.8810 rubles for Oct 1. Corporate/AI Push: Sber is combining startup tech for health services and rolling out a universal AI analyst for financiers. Drone Regulation: Russia will require ERA-GLONASS connectivity for flight plans for civilian drones over 250 grams. Trade Flows: Russian wheat exports to Uzbekistan surged 16-fold in eight months.

Russia–Europe Security Claims: Russia’s embassy in Dublin rejected claims of an “imminent” invasion or hybrid escalation, saying Europe is using the “Russian threat” to justify higher defense spending and more support for Ukraine. Energy Dependence Debate: An energy expert warned Moldova against returning to Russian gas, arguing Gazprom leverage can quickly turn into political pressure, citing Armenia as a cautionary example. Winter Strike Strategy: Analysts say Moscow is shifting toward a “winter” campaign aimed at crippling Ukraine’s energy and critical infrastructure to force concessions before spring 2027. Hybrid Sabotage in Europe: Lithuania backed Estonia after an arson attack on Tallinn’s Milrem Robotics, while a Europe-wide map tracks hundreds of suspected Russia-linked sabotage incidents since 2022. Crypto Crackdown: Russia’s central bank is drafting rules that would require banks to disclose clients’ cryptocurrency holdings in anti-corruption asset declarations. Business & Trade Moves: Togo’s chamber proposed deeper, partnership-based trade with Russia via a business council; South African exporters are pivoting toward China and other BRICS markets to hedge trade friction. Ukraine War Costs: Reports highlight how missile and drone alerts are driving major business losses in Ukraine, while Russia’s strikes keep targeting power and data infrastructure ahead of colder months.

G20 Trade Talks: G20 ministers opened in Milwaukee under pressure from Trump’s tariffs, forced-labor scrutiny and global overcapacity, with analysts expecting a deadlock as partners push for trade deals beyond the US. Ukraine War & Energy: Russia’s drone and missile campaign keeps hitting Kyiv’s economy and infrastructure, with Ukraine estimating missile alerts can cost $45m per hour as businesses repeatedly halt. Sanctions & Prisoner Swap: US-Russia diplomacy is circling a possible sanctions-easing-for-political-prisoners deal, while a Reuters report says Russia’s envoy met US officials on post-war energy initiatives. Russia Defense Industry Risk: A Russian Tu-95 bomber crashed during training in Amur, killing six crew members, underscoring operational strain. Armenia Nuclear Push: Rosatom proposed a new 1 GW nuclear unit for Armenia, as both sides also confirmed work to extend Metsamor NPP Unit 2. Currency Watch: Russia set the euro rate at 96.0625 rubles on Sept. 30. Business Tech & Startups: Moscow’s Startup Summit (Sept. 29-30) will feature international participation and major demo days, including Sber500. Regional Flooding: Severe flooding hit Vladivostok, disrupting water supplies and transport.

Defense Budget Shock: Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion roubles on defense in 2027, up about 27%, while welfare, education and healthcare funding are set to shrink as Moscow chases higher war costs. War Economy Pressure: Reuters also reports Russia is preparing new tax hikes expected to raise nearly $44 billion over three years, adding windfall taxes and higher levies on passive income and cross-border online purchases. Ukraine’s Digital Vulnerability: Russia is expanding strikes on Ukraine’s data centers and telecom infrastructure, disrupting internet and mobile services as faster jet-powered drones complicate interception. Sanctions-Deal Talk: The Atlantic says Trump is considering easing Russia sanctions in exchange for prisoner releases, aiming to reopen paths for oil, diesel and rare-earth deals. Corporate Risk in Russia: OTP Bank is reviewing its Russia strategy and may fully exit as regulatory scrutiny rises amid its Baltic expansion plans. Cash Controls: Putin signed tighter rules limiting how much cash rubles individuals can take out to EAEU and nearby states, sharply reducing the personal cap.

Kyiv Under Fire: Russia hit Kyiv and Dnipro with a fresh wave of jet-powered drone strikes, killing at least two and injuring dozens, including at the National Academy of Sciences and a Dnipro business centre—raising pressure on Ukraine’s air defences and the wider economy. Defense Spending Push: Moscow is preparing a major jump in military outlays, with Reuters citing a 27% rise in 2027 defence spending to about 17.1 trillion rubles, alongside new decrees expanding troop numbers. Energy Trade Squeeze: Russian crude availability is shrinking for India as Black Sea loading is disrupted by drone attacks and China books more cargoes, with Indian refiners expecting tighter supplies in October-November. Gas Payment Rule Extended: Putin extended the ruble settlement requirement for foreign gas buyers to April 1, 2027, keeping pressure on payment channels. Frozen Assets Legal Fight: The EU is considering a new plan to move Russia’s frozen central bank assets into a dedicated EU instrument, aiming to reduce legal risk while leaving the endgame unresolved. Eurasian Trade Outreach: D-8’s secretary-general visited Moscow to deepen trade cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Commission and Russian officials.

EU Sanctions Push: The EU imposed new sanctions on 10 individuals and 17 entities tied to Russia’s repression of democratic opposition and the Yabloko election ban, including Supreme Court judges and prosecutors involved in cases against Lev Shlosberg and other opposition figures, with asset freezes and a ban on EU funds. Arctic Security: Norway is boosting military and surveillance capacity in the Arctic and around Svalbard as concerns grow about Russian hybrid probing of NATO response and undersea infrastructure. Ukraine Strikes With Economic Targets: Russian jet- and drone attacks hit Kyiv’s National Academy of Sciences and other sites, killing at least one and injuring dozens, while Kyiv and partners frame the campaign as aimed at science, civilian life, and economic infrastructure. EU Assets Debate: Brussels continues to weigh how to use immobilized Russian assets to fund Ukraine, with officials saying action needs clear member-state instructions. Metro Asset Seizure: Russia placed Metro AG’s Russian business under temporary state-linked management, following similar moves against Nestlé and Auchan, underscoring how sanctions and geopolitics keep reshaping foreign business in Russia. Trade Diplomacy: India’s Piyush Goyal heads to the US for G20 trade talks and to press India-US bilateral trade agreement discussions.

Ukraine War & Energy Pressure: Russian guided bombs hit Kharkiv apartments, while drones and strikes damaged Kyiv and other regions, as Zelenskyy called the targeting of schools and civilian sites “terrorism” and urged tougher sanctions. Ceasefire Trade-Off: Kyiv says it could pause strikes on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow halts attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical facilities—though the Kremlin appears unwilling. Black Sea Grain Watch: Wheat prices slid as traders weighed diplomacy that could restart Black Sea exports; Reuters notes Russia could quickly restore much of its grain terminal capacity if attacks stop. Sanctions Bargaining in the EU: EU capitals are extending Russia sanctions while trading concessions on the Kremlin-linked blacklist, raising concerns that sanctions are becoming negotiation chips. UN Security Council Reform: Russia renewed support for India’s (and Brazil’s) bid for permanent UN seats, reviving debate over how to reform the Security Council beyond the post-WWII model. Crypto & Trade Workarounds: A report claims over 20 million Russians use crypto for foreign trade settlement to bypass SWIFT frictions. Aviation/Defense Industry: UAC delivered a new batch of tweaked Su-57 jets, though details on changes remain undisclosed. Swiss Neutrality Vote: Switzerland rejected a constitutional move to harden neutrality, keeping sanctions flexibility alive.

Ukraine War Economy: The EBRD says Ukraine is entering its “most difficult period” as labor shortages and intensifying Russian bombardments squeeze spending and could drag growth to near zero, with damage estimates around $10bn by year-end. Drone & Sanctions Pressure: Zelensky reports Russia launched 277 drones (including jet-powered) and urges partners to pass the Lindsey Graham sanctions-and-tariffs bill, warning of new October restrictions targeting Russia’s financial and weapons supply chains. Energy & Industry Hit: Ukraine’s strikes reportedly targeted multiple Russian refineries and an electronics/military plant in a week, while Kyiv’s own economy faces pinch points as attacks disrupt supply networks. Russia Business & Finance: Russia’s private-sector borrowing remains weak as firms see limited investment opportunities, reflecting broader uncertainty and cost pressures. Nuclear Fuel Race (US): The US DOE is pushing Centrus, General Atomics’ unit General Matter, and Orano to speed uranium enrichment buildouts as waivers on Russian enriched uranium imports expire in 2028. Trade/Geopolitics: Russia backs India’s permanent UNSC bid at UNGA, while Russia-Germany diplomacy resumes after a long gap. Regional Links: China-Russia cross-border ropeway infrastructure clears inspection, adding to border tourism and trade connectivity.

UN Security Council Reform: Russia’s FM Sergey Lavrov backed India and Brazil for permanent UNSC seats, while opposing any added Western seats—especially for Germany and Japan—at UNGA, arguing reforms must expand Asia, Africa and Latin America. Russia–Germany Tensions: Lavrov rejected Berlin’s call to step back from “dangerous escalation” after a rare UNGA meeting with German FM Johann Wadephul, with grain and drone-war issues cited. Iran Sanctions Pressure: A US Treasury official warned Middle East partners that trading with Iran could mean losing access to US markets, as airlines and banks reportedly cut ties. Energy & Trade Shock: Russia-linked crude is said to have helped India cushion oil-supply disruptions from West Asia turmoil, while Ukraine’s strikes keep hitting refineries and logistics. Business & Security Tech: UK officials warn Russian/Chinese “temporary phone” services could enable cyber “grey zone” attacks. Sports Finance: Russian-born Kazakh Timur Turlov was elected FIDE president after EU pressure forced Arkady Dvorkovich out.

Ukraine-Russia Strikes: Russia and Ukraine traded accusations after overnight drone and missile attacks killed at least five and injured 20+ across both countries, with Russian air defenses downing hundreds of drones and strikes hitting homes, industrial sites, and the Ilsky oil refinery. Digital Economy Under Fire: Moscow escalated attacks on Ukraine’s connectivity, hitting data centers including Cosmonova and disrupting internet services for tens of thousands of households, while Kyiv said Russia aims to target ordinary life and business operations. Sanctions & Diplomacy: At UNGA, Lavrov backed India’s bid for a permanent UNSC seat and warned against expanding Western representation, while also signaling Russia is ready to resume the Anchorage Ukraine framework. Germany-Russia Tensions: German and Russian foreign ministers met briefly at the UN, with Germany urging Russia to stop escalation after a Leipzig airport drone incident. Business Impact in War Zones: ArcelorMittal halted production at Ukraine’s Kryvyi Rih steel plant after repeated strikes, with an estimated $1B impairment charge, as EBRD cut Ukraine’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.5% amid port and industrial damage. Energy & Trade Signals: Lavrov urged trust-building to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions, while Russia also pushed regional cooperation themes from UNGA. Russia’s Economic Moves: Russia proposed shortening CIS and Georgia truck drivers’ maximum stay if those states pursue EU membership, tightening mobility rules tied to security concerns. Regional Ties Beyond War: Malaysia-Russia relations hit a “very high point,” with trade above $3.6B in 2025 and cooperation expanding into energy, AI, quantum tech, aerospace, and disaster management.

Energy & Infrastructure Regulation: Russia’s antimonopoly watchdog is considering letting power-grid operators add the costs of protecting and restoring damaged transmission networks to industrial electricity tariffs, while keeping household rates unaffected. Russia-Ukraine Digital Economy: Zelenskyy says Russia is escalating attacks on Ukraine’s data centres and internet providers, warning the goal is to disrupt “ordinary life,” as drone strikes also hit business sites in Kyiv. Industrial Fallout: ArcelorMittal is shutting Ukraine’s Kryvyi Rih steel plant after repeated strikes, citing “safe and sustainable” operations as impossible—another hit to a sector under pressure from war and EU restrictions. Finance & Banking: Rostec-linked “RT-Finance” reports 12% capital growth to 195bn rubles in H1 2026; Bank Saint Petersburg approved H1 dividends totaling 8.2bn rubles. FX Watch: The Central Bank set the euro at 95.8709 rubles for Sept 26. Trade Flows: Russia boosted diesel supplies to Kyrgyzstan 16-fold in August, with 72,000+ tonnes shipped. Diplomacy with Business Impact: India’s Jaishankar met Russia’s Lavrov on UNGA sidelines, reaffirming the “special and privileged” strategic partnership amid new US sanctions pressure.

Construction Crunch: Russian construction bankruptcies jumped 41% year-on-year as demand collapses and financing costs stay high, with developers in multiple regions unable to cover taxes, wages and loan payments. Sanctions & Assets: Russian billionaires are reportedly studying how Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman got EU restrictions lifted, looking for legal paths to reclaim frozen assets. Defense-Finance Push: Russia’s finance ministry is advancing a three-year budget with higher taxes on passive income to fund social obligations and the war effort. Tax Shock for Households: The plan would raise the passive-income bracket to 13%-22%, with exemptions for small deposits and war participants. Ukraine’s Data-Center Pressure: Zelensky says Russia is widening strikes to hit Ukraine’s data centres and internet providers, disrupting connectivity for tens of thousands. Trade Fight: The WTO will set up a panel to review Russia’s complaint against the EU’s carbon border levy. Aviation Strain in Russia: Regional airlines are suspending flights and cutting ticket sales as aircraft parts shortages and safety issues deepen after sanctions. Global Business Linkages: Russia and South Sudan discussed expanding trade, investment, education and Russian-language cooperation ahead of major regional diplomacy.