AGP Executive Report

Fuel Crisis & Rationing: Russia’s fuel crunch is worsening after Ukrainian strikes on refineries and depots, with long queues and rationing spreading even in Moscow; reports also say some gas stations are prioritizing “government” users, using passwords or special cards, while prices and frustration rise. Energy Trade Shifts: To patch the gap, Russia is reportedly importing jet fuel via traders from Japan (loading in Chiba, routing through South Korea) and buying Indian-origin gasoline—Nayara Energy shipments reportedly reaching Russia as direct sales are denied but trader-led flows are acknowledged. Deep-Strikes Escalation: Ukraine says its drone forces have boosted deep strikes inside Russia by 1,150% since January, targeting fuel-and-energy and military-industrial sites. War & Civilian Impact: Russia and Ukraine traded overnight drone and missile accusations, with strikes reported across Russian border regions and multiple Ukrainian oblasts, including injuries to children. Nord Stream Legal Fallout: Moscow points to Germany’s indictment over Nord Stream sabotage as proof of Kyiv’s role, arguing EU accession debates should factor the case. Sanctions & Diplomacy: Bulgaria plans reservations on the EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia, while the UK announced a new sanctions push targeting Russia’s shadow-fleet maritime trade. Business Watch: Moscow’s Technopolis SEZ pharma residents reportedly increased investment in early 2026, while Russia’s vehicle market rose 12% in the first half as sales climbed.

Fuel & Energy Shock: Russia is easing the blow from Ukraine drone strikes by letting some refineries temporarily sell lower-grade Euro-3 gasoline inside the country, while the wider fuel crisis keeps spreading—prices jump, stations tighten supply, and Moscow leans on workarounds like importing gasoline via traders. Oil Export Pivot: Despite domestic strain, Russian western-port crude loadings hit a record in June and are set to stay near that level in July as refinery damage forces more crude exports. Digital Ruble Push: The Bank of Russia says the digital ruble is still on track for a Sept. 1 rollout, even as public demand looks weak and EU sanctions loom. War’s Business Impact: The latest mass strike on Kyiv killed at least 21–25 people and triggered fresh calls in the US and Europe for tougher action—while the conflict’s economic spillover shows up in Russia’s fuel shortages and logistics strain. Trade & Regional Politics: Armenia’s PM says Yerevan won’t repeat its 2013 pivot away from EU integration, even as the EU offers trade liberalisation and funding to counter Russian pressure. Corporate/Finance Notes: Black Sea Petroleum reports production growth and a Honeywell partnership expansion, plus plans to process non-Russian crude and add new product lines in 2027. Fraud & Security: Russia’s FSB alleges Ukraine-based call centers drove hundreds of thousands of fraud cases in 2025, with major seizures and arrests reported.

Kyiv Strike Toll: Russia hit Kyiv with hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles, killing at least 18 and injuring scores, with Zelenskiy urging allies to keep funding air-defense supplies. EU Sanctions & Media: The EU’s top court ruled the RT broadcast ban covers free public websites, tightening enforcement of Russia-linked information restrictions. Armenia Trade Pivot: The EU pledged €18m more support and tariff-free access for about 80% of Armenian exports, aiming to blunt Russian trade pressure after Moscow restrictions. Russia’s Economic Strain: A Gallup survey shows Russian economic confidence at a 20-year low, with most respondents saying conditions are worsening as war fatigue deepens. Fuel Crunch Spillover: Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian refining and logistics are driving a fuel crisis that is starting to show up in everyday life. Sanctions Enforcement in Europe: A Finnish court jailed a businessman for exporting trucks and trailers to Russia in violation of EU sanctions, ordering large forfeitures. India-Russia Oil Link: India’s refineries bought record volumes of Russian crude in June as Hormuz disruption raised supply risks. Nuclear Heat Study: Budapest launched a feasibility study to pipe waste heat from Paks to the city grid, though Paks 2 delays and Russian dependencies loom.

Fuel Crisis & Energy Trade: Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries are squeezing supply, triggering rationing, long queues and record pump prices, while Russia turns to imports—reportedly including large gasoline shipments from India—to stabilize the market. Central Bank Outlook: The Bank of Russia says domestic oil prices may stay elevated near term before easing gradually, as geopolitical-driven inventory drawdowns delay a surplus. Economic Mood: A Gallup survey finds 60% of Russians say their local economy is worsening, with trust in government and even the armed forces down. Defense Spending Pressure (UK): Britain’s new defence investment plan faces scrutiny over a funding “black hole” and unclear cuts to transport, energy and possibly hospital projects. Sanctions & Corporate Risk: Euroclear is suing Russia’s central bank in Belgium over a massive frozen-assets dispute, while reports also highlight tighter ruble cash handling across EAEU banks. Ireland-Russia Alumina: Zelenskiy urges Ireland to cut off alumina exports to Russia’s war effort; an Aughinish Alumina probe is nearing completion. Regional Investment (Kyrgyzstan): Kyrgyzstan attracted $1.31bn FDI in 2025, up 30%, with China the top investor and Russia still a major player.

Ukraine–Russia War Finance & Shipping: Ukraine argues its strikes on Russia’s “shadow fleet” tankers are legitimate because the vessels generate budget revenues that fund the war, pushing back on Moscow’s “terrorism” claims. Military Aid Pressure: Ukraine’s defense chief says Kyiv needs “the next level” of Western funding to keep battlefield momentum, warning Russia will adapt unless aid arrives fast. EU Drone Money: The European Commission released €3.9bn for Ukraine drone procurement under the €6.8bn Ukraine Support Loan, with more disbursements expected after contract checks. Fuel Crunch in Russia: Ukraine’s June DeepStrike campaign hit multiple Russian refineries and fuel logistics, while Putin admitted fuel shortages and queues, and Russia plans to import gasoline for the first time in decades. Economic Mood in Russia: Gallup finds Russians’ pessimism at a 20-year high, with 60% saying local economic conditions are worsening and 56% reporting living standards decline. EU Entry Ban Proposal: The EU floated a new sanctions idea to bar entry for anyone who served in Russia’s armed forces since the full-scale invasion. Baltic LNG Security: Estonia released images of machine guns and fortifications on a Russian-flagged LNG carrier, signaling a tougher stance toward Moscow’s civilian shipping. Arctic/Trade Logistics: A North Korea–Russia road bridge opening is likely delayed as Russia-side infrastructure remains incomplete, according to a US think tank. Armenia–Russia Trade Rules: Armenia’s deputy foreign minister says the TRIPP project would operate under EAEU transit rules, while legal questions remain about how any Russian role fits. Poland Security Warning: Poland warns Russia could exploit tensions with Ukraine via information operations and attempts to inflame relations among Ukrainians in Poland.

Fuel Crisis in Russia: Ukrainian drone strikes are hitting refineries and oil terminals hard, and Russians are seeing it in real life—queues, price spikes and even fights at gas stations in the south, with Moscow residents reporting long waits as authorities try to manage shortages. EU Support for Ukraine Drones: The European Commission has started disbursing €3.9bn for Ukraine’s drone procurement, part of a wider €90bn support loan, as Kyiv pushes to sustain pressure on Russia’s war infrastructure. Ukraine Targets Russia’s Comms: Ukraine says it struck Russia’s Dubna satellite communications centre for the second time in weeks, while Russia reports large drone interceptions and continued strikes across multiple regions. Monaco Bomb Linked to Sanctioned Tycoon: A parcel bomb in Monaco injured Ukrainian-born businessman Vadym Iermolaiev, his wife and their child; prosecutors say a suspect fled toward France, raising questions about cross-border targeting tied to wartime networks. Gold Outlook: Goldman Sachs says central-bank buying keeps gold’s rally alive, forecasting prices near $4,900/oz by end-2026, even as near-term headwinds from a hawkish Fed linger. World Bank Climate Shift: The World Bank dropped its 45% climate-finance target under pressure from the US, extending the broader climate plan but weakening a key benchmark. Trade/Policy Watch: Russia is pressing over Armenia’s EU path and possible EAEU suspension implications, while Germany’s far-right AfD renews calls to end boycotts on Russian energy.

Fuel & Energy Pressure: Russia’s fuel crunch is worsening, with police and National Guard units deployed to petrol stations as shortages spread and officials warn against stockpiling. Ukraine War Spillover: Ukraine’s long-range strikes are hitting Russian infrastructure, and Putin has now acknowledged fuel supply problems—raising the stakes for Russia’s wartime economy. Defense Spending Shock: Britain unveiled a major defense investment plan, boosting spending toward drones and uncrewed systems—explicitly citing lessons from Ukraine. EU Drone Cash: The EU began disbursing €3.9B for Ukraine drone procurement under the €90B Ukraine Support Loan, with more tranches to follow. Trade Pivot to the Global South: Lavrov says Russia will keep expanding trade and investment ties with Africa, while Putin pushes non-energy export growth across Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Oil Market Watch: Shell warns LNG trade could stay flat in 2026 as Hormuz disruptions curb supply, even as demand is expected to surge later. Regional Business Links: Armenia’s economy minister says there’s no diesel shortage and points to diversified supply chains; Armenia also discussed export expansion with France. Cyber & Security: The US offered a $10M bounty tied to Russia-linked hacking groups targeting Signal and WhatsApp.

Fuel Crisis: After weeks of downplaying shortages, the Kremlin acknowledged Russia faces a fuel supply crisis and held an emergency meeting with top officials and major oil executives, as Ukrainian drone strikes hit refining capacity and Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery damage keeps supplies tight. Energy & Trade: Ukraine also said it struck two Russian refineries (Slavyansk in Krasnodar and facilities in Yaroslavl), adding pressure to an already strained market. Markets & Policy: The World Bank will “retire” its 45% climate co-benefits lending goal and extend its climate plan, shifting toward lending outcomes—an update that matters for global development finance. Defense Spending: In the UK, the delayed defence investment plan is set to expand drone and autonomous weapons funding after a funding gap dispute. Sanctions & Compliance: Multiple UK energy firms were fined for breaching Russia sanctions rules, underscoring enforcement risk. Human Impact: Russian strikes across Ukraine killed 10 and injured dozens, including a Dnipro missile attack and a Kharkiv glide-bomb strike.

Fuel & Logistics Shock: Putin admitted Russia is facing fuel shortages as Ukraine’s drone campaign hits refineries, with queues at gas stations and a task force set up to stabilize supplies; trucking firms say diesel scarcity is disrupting cargo flows to China and pushing freight rates higher. Energy Infrastructure Under Fire: Ukraine struck Russian oil assets again, while Putin rejected a proposed mutual halt on long-range infrastructure strikes, insisting Russia will press on with capturing four regions. Frontline Human Cost: Pro-war Russian channels claim assault troops’ frontline survival is down to about 20–35 minutes as drones intensify. Cross-Border Violence: Drones and artillery killed civilians on both sides of the border, including a missile strike on a private business in Dnipro that killed four and injured 21. Sanctions & Business Risk: A UK-linked energy services firm paid a £569,157 penalty to HMRC for breaching Russia sanctions during its wind-down operations. Security Spillover in Europe: Estonia’s FM said stray Ukrainian drones hitting NATO territory is a “price worth paying,” while Poland’s intelligence warned Russia could use unmarked troops in Baltic provocations. Trade & Markets: India’s Russian crude imports may hit a record high in June as tanker arrivals surge.

Ukraine Strikes Energy Backbone: Putin admitted Russia is in a “difficult period” as Kyiv’s long-range drone campaign hit a major southern refinery near Slavyansk-na-Kubani, with Russian officials reporting deaths and more fuel disruption. Fuel Shortage Response: Putin said shortages are real, with queues at gas stations, and ordered a task force to stabilize supplies; a diesel export ban is being considered and gasoline reserves were cited at 1.7 million tons. Sanctions and Strategy: At the United Russia congress, Putin vowed to keep executing long-term strategic plans despite EU sanctions, arguing the West can’t achieve battlefield or political destabilization, while also rejecting Ukraine’s proposal for a mutual halt to long-range strikes. Frontline Manpower Pressure: A report claims new Russian recruits face extremely short life expectancy on the Ukraine front, reflecting how drone warfare is reshaping recruitment and casualties. Trade/Finance Watch: Russia also moved to update its G20 participation commission, signaling continued focus on international economic coordination even as sanctions tighten.

Ukraine-Russia Energy War: Zelensky pledged more long-range strikes after Ukraine hit two Russian oil refineries overnight, targeting Slavyansk in Krasnodar and a refinery in Yaroslavl, as Kyiv pushes to drain Moscow’s war-funding capacity. Fuel & Economy Pressure: A Washington Post report says Ukraine’s drone campaign is increasingly hitting Russia’s fuel market and key industrial sites, with gasoline production down sharply and some regions forced into sales limits. Frontline Damage: Russian guided bombs struck a residential area in Zaporizhzhia, injuring civilians, while overnight attacks also hit Kyiv and Chernihiv with ballistic missiles and drones. Cyber & Security: The FBI and CISA warned that Russian intelligence-linked hackers are phishing high-value targets to steal Signal Backup Recovery Keys. Sanctions & Shipping: The US reinstated strict enforcement of sanctions on Russian seaborne oil exports after temporary waivers expired, aiming to tighten revenue flows. Regional Trade Corridors: Azerbaijan routed a new shipment of Russian wheat to Armenia via rail transit, underscoring South Caucasus logistics despite sanctions. Digital Payments Tourism: Russia and Thailand moved toward cashless tourism payments, including mobile app and Sberbank QR options.

Ukraine-Russia Strikes: Kyiv hit Russia’s Titan-Barrikady weapons plant in Volgograd with long-range Flamingo missiles, while drones and artillery killed civilians on both sides of the border, including in Bryansk and the Dnipropetrovsk region. Occupied Crimea Crisis: Russian-installed authorities declared an indefinite state of emergency in Crimea as fuel shortages, power cuts, and disrupted supplies hit residents and tourism. Fuel & Energy Pressure: Russia’s gasoline crunch is worsening, with queues and limits reported across regions, adding to broader war-driven strain on logistics and budgets. Sanctions & Enforcement: France seized the Russian shadow-fleet tanker Deliver and moved it to Marseille for investigation, signaling continued pressure on sanctions evasion. Trade & Transit: Russian wheat is being shipped to Armenia via Azerbaijan, highlighting how South Caucasus transit routes keep moving despite politics. Finance & Markets: The Moscow Exchange is set to end the week at new lows, while central-bank gold buying remains a key global signal. Business & Tech: Polestar is effectively pushed out of the US after a Commerce Department denial tied to connected-vehicle rules. Diplomacy: Putin and Lukashenko continued talks in Valdai, focusing on trade, joint projects, and regional security.

Baltics Push EU Oil Ban: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged the EU to speed up a full phase-out of Russian oil imports, arguing the remaining 2% share still means about 9.7 million tons of crude and keeps war revenues flowing; the EU has already agreed a gas phase-out by autumn 2027, but an oil embargo proposal has been delayed amid the Iran crisis. Ukraine Support Loan: Ukraine received the first €3.2bn tranche under the EU’s €90bn Ukraine Support Loan framework for 2026-27, with conditions tied to budget management, revenue, spending efficiency, rule of law and anti-corruption. Fuel Crisis in Russia-Linked Crimea: Ukrainian strikes and drone pressure are triggering rolling outages and fuel shortages in occupied Crimea, with authorities declaring an emergency and suspending fuel sales. Central Bank Gold Rush: A new report highlights accelerating central bank gold buying and repatriation, with gold holdings at the highest since 1975, driven by sovereignty goals and risk hedging. Russia-Ukraine Frontline Toll: Russian drone and missile attacks killed at least seven and injured 89 across Ukraine, including a drone strike on a minibus in Nikopol. U.S.-Backed Georgia Port Deal: Work began on a new berth at Georgia’s Poti port under a second U.S. loan agreement, boosting bulk cargo capacity as the Middle Corridor focus grows.

Crimea Emergency: Russian-installed authorities declared a state of emergency across occupied Crimea after intensified Ukrainian drone strikes, citing disruptions to fuel, power and transport and the need to keep services running. Market Watch: Moscow Exchange shares slid again as investors weighed geopolitics and rate-cut hopes; trading stayed active and oil-linked names saw selective support. Central Banking & Gold: A new push by central banks into gold is lifting reserves to the highest levels since the 1970s, with demand rising after 2022. Trade Liberalization: The EAEU and India agreed the contours for liberalizing trade in goods, including tariff steps and rules on customs, competition and technical standards. Innovation Pipeline: Rospatent data show invention applications up 12% in five months, led by pharma and transport tech. Energy Policy: Russia extended a sulfur export ban through end-2026 to stabilize fertilizer inputs. Corporate Finance: Moscow Exchange approved 44.5bn rubles in dividends for 2025, with record holders set for July 9. Sanctions & Shipping: Serbia’s NIS filed again for an OFAC waiver to keep crude imports flowing while ownership talks with Gazprom Neft continue. Crypto Sanctions: A British student became the first schoolboy personally sanctioned by Russia over a crypto investigation. Business & Culture: Russia opened a large wine complex in Gelendzhik, backed by Bank Rossiya, as part of a push to build domestic wine tourism.

Ukraine Drone War & Energy Pressure: Russia says it downed 660 Ukrainian drones overnight across 12 regions and Crimea, with Tula’s governor reporting damage to power lines and the Azot chemical plant near Moscow—an explosives-linked target hit again after a June 14 strike. Sanctions & Finance: The US Treasury removed seven Russians, two vessels and two legal entities from Russia-related sanctions lists, including Ivan Potanin, son of Vladimir Potanin, without explanation. FX & Fuel Crunch: The ruble slid to a two-month low as demand for foreign currency rose amid Russia’s fuel crisis and gasoline imports by sea, with the dollar and euro climbing on OTC rates. Occupied Crimea Governance: Russia-appointed officials introduced a state of emergency in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol, citing “economic” stabilization needs amid shortages and logistics strain. Trade & Industry: Russia temporarily suspended fish import certification from two more Armenian companies, halting all Armenian fish product supplies to Russia. Diplomacy & Business Outreach: IHG is seeking deeper ties with India’s Kerala in tourism, education and trade—raising questions about India’s federal foreign-policy boundaries. EU Sanctions: The EU extended economic sanctions on Russia for another year to July 31, 2027. Security in the Digital Space: Russia’s FSB says a detained Dagestan minor ran a terrorist-linked online network recruiting teens with Ukrainian coordination.

Fuel & sanctions pressure: Russia’s fuel crunch is worsening as Ukrainian strikes hit refineries, fuel depots and logistics, while the Kremlin orders media to soften the narrative and show queue-free gas station images. EU Russia policy: The EU extended sanctions on Russia for another year to July 31, 2027, and MEPs back a new fast defence innovation programme (AGILE) while France and Italy resist an EU plan to ban entry for former Russian soldiers. Energy trade & shipping: Iran attacked a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile interim peace deal, and the reopening of the strait is expected to lift Middle East supply flows. Eurasian finance & investment: The EDB plans $13.5bn in investments across member states for 2027-2031, and the EEC and EDB signed a cooperation memorandum. Digital infrastructure: Cloud.ru started building a Moscow data center (around 11MW, 2027), while St. Petersburg approved two new data centers. Cyber & security: ESET says the Russian Gamaredon group upgraded its toolkit, and Ukraine approved a 40-day SBU influence operation targeting Russian oil and refineries. Business & markets: Bank of Russia set the euro rate at 85.7697 rubles for June 26; inflation was 0.25% for the week and industrial production rose 0.4% over five months.